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Key Rate Indicator
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD · ^TNX
The Mortgage Rate Predictor
Mortgage rates follow this within 24–48 hrs. Above 4.5% = affordability pressure in SGV. Watch the direction, not just the number.
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Homebuilder Stocks — 3–6 Month Leading Indicator
Sustained drops here = builders see demand softening ahead. Watch the trend week over week.
Real Estate ETFs — Institutional Money Flow
Smart money buying RE = bullish signal. Both up = institutions see value.
Broad Market — Buyer Wealth Effect
Market up = SGV move-up buyers feel wealthier and act. Sustained bear market = luxury buyers pause.
Manual Checks — Do These Daily
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Check today's 30-yr mortgage rate
Updated every morning — mortgagenewsdaily.com. Even a 0.125% move shifts buyer qualification. Note vs. yesterday.
RATES
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Check CME FedWatch — rate cut odds this meeting?
Market bets on Fed moves → CME FedWatch Tool. Cut expected = rates may ease soon. Forward-looking signal.